While the American liberal class is currently soothing itself with Bill McKibben’s latest lullaby, Here Comes the Sun, the American state is busy proving that the laws of thermodynamics cannot be repealed by a price curve.
I wish I could find something to disagree with you on but as you always remind us, there is no negotiation with the physical laws of the universe. As Ginsberg's parody of the laws of thermodynamics has it: 1) there is a game and you are playing it; 2) you cannot win the game; 3) you cannot break even in the game; 4) you cannot quit the game.
Your output is phenomenal in terms of both output and quality. I am a Humanities student by background (languages and literature) but became very interested in overshoot as an undergraduate after reading Jeremy Rifkin's book 'Entropy' all the way back in 1986. And now here we are, at a point where it is no longer possible for anybody with intellectual honesty to deny it (unfortunately, as your piece about the politicians that govern us reminded us, that excludes anybody who actually makes it to the top in any establishment position of politics, media, business, etc). Your pieces are extremely helpful in navigating the collapse unfolding around us, which will only accelerate from here.
What makes it possible is having a coherent framework. All the topics are manifestations of the same underlying processes. That, and the fact I just can't help myself when it comes to analysing everything! Much to my wife's irritation! She's much happier for me to be putting it out here than constantly trying to share my thoughts with her!
I do need to finish that series on the microcomputer industry: "The War on Abstraction". It's not the most popular, but I put a lot of work into it. It's just being pushed down in priority as events accelerate!
I agree, the framework is everything, and once I got into the concept of entropy after reading Rifkin's book I never looked at the world the same way again. By the way, I also used to be a keen reader of The Oil Drum and I see you were a moderator n some of those discussions -- that was a wonderful forum for discussion, and as you say, conventional oil really did peak back in 2005-07 and we have been forced to use an increasing amount of lower-quality liquid-energy sources ever since. Hence the resource wars we are now seeing played out. Anyway, you deserve a much wider audience for your thoughts, you have a very good way of making these issues intelligible to a non-scientific readership.
Talking of Rifkin, you know, after his success with "Entropy", he spent the following 40+ years conditioning himself into the ideology of "Green Growth" and zero marginal cost (a cipher for decoupling) as one of it's greatest proponents.
It's tragic, but also informative. We really mustn't underestimate how rhetoric, material conditions, and access incentivise us to actually change how we think.
Yes, I did know that. Funnily enough, I bumped into him on a plane about 15 years ago on a flight to Berlin where he was going to meet Angela Merkel. I had a brief chat with him and told him how much his book had influenced me but he was in a self-important rush with his chauffeur-driven limousine waitig to take him to the Bundeskanlerin. He also behaved very shabbily towards the cabin staff on the plane. That was when I realised the truth contained in the phrase 'never meet your heroes'.
You are absolutely right that it is not possible for anyone with intellectual honesty today to deny overshoot. Yet somehow I don't think I have seen that thought expressed so clearly in writing or speech. Maybe we should be saying it more!
Language is not keeping up with the times either. New terms to describe the morphing of politics.
This is corporate fascism. As the move is not politically motivated as much as it is the puppets of the Oil handbook.
When you are 45% of the worlds GDP for 7 decades, you do not vote for governments. In the capital system, you control them.
They, having co-opted the small tech bro community by sharing the political handbook, establish new centres of energy use. Deserts of data sucking water and energy - but lacking imagination and intellect. These data centres create the new demNd for fossil fuels where solar is imagined to take over housing and automobiles.
Data centres are just large libraries of stored Information, to run through quick compilation software,that lack imagination and intelligence. Miles of sand without water.
Thank you for this important essay, beginning by trashing the granfallon McKibben, whose only credential is having written a book(s).
It is exactly correct that we need forms of degrowth to find a simpler life. But the political leaders keep attempting to build their way out of this overly-complex society which involves exponential increases in energy and resources consumption (throughput).
I wish I could find something to disagree with you on but as you always remind us, there is no negotiation with the physical laws of the universe. As Ginsberg's parody of the laws of thermodynamics has it: 1) there is a game and you are playing it; 2) you cannot win the game; 3) you cannot break even in the game; 4) you cannot quit the game.
Thanks for another great piece!
Thank you! Also for the paid subscription, it's appreciated!
I have just published to paid subscribers what has become a follow-up, but was intended to anticipate events! Things are moving too quickly!
Your output is phenomenal in terms of both output and quality. I am a Humanities student by background (languages and literature) but became very interested in overshoot as an undergraduate after reading Jeremy Rifkin's book 'Entropy' all the way back in 1986. And now here we are, at a point where it is no longer possible for anybody with intellectual honesty to deny it (unfortunately, as your piece about the politicians that govern us reminded us, that excludes anybody who actually makes it to the top in any establishment position of politics, media, business, etc). Your pieces are extremely helpful in navigating the collapse unfolding around us, which will only accelerate from here.
What makes it possible is having a coherent framework. All the topics are manifestations of the same underlying processes. That, and the fact I just can't help myself when it comes to analysing everything! Much to my wife's irritation! She's much happier for me to be putting it out here than constantly trying to share my thoughts with her!
I do need to finish that series on the microcomputer industry: "The War on Abstraction". It's not the most popular, but I put a lot of work into it. It's just being pushed down in priority as events accelerate!
I agree, the framework is everything, and once I got into the concept of entropy after reading Rifkin's book I never looked at the world the same way again. By the way, I also used to be a keen reader of The Oil Drum and I see you were a moderator n some of those discussions -- that was a wonderful forum for discussion, and as you say, conventional oil really did peak back in 2005-07 and we have been forced to use an increasing amount of lower-quality liquid-energy sources ever since. Hence the resource wars we are now seeing played out. Anyway, you deserve a much wider audience for your thoughts, you have a very good way of making these issues intelligible to a non-scientific readership.
Talking of Rifkin, you know, after his success with "Entropy", he spent the following 40+ years conditioning himself into the ideology of "Green Growth" and zero marginal cost (a cipher for decoupling) as one of it's greatest proponents.
It's tragic, but also informative. We really mustn't underestimate how rhetoric, material conditions, and access incentivise us to actually change how we think.
Yes, I did know that. Funnily enough, I bumped into him on a plane about 15 years ago on a flight to Berlin where he was going to meet Angela Merkel. I had a brief chat with him and told him how much his book had influenced me but he was in a self-important rush with his chauffeur-driven limousine waitig to take him to the Bundeskanlerin. He also behaved very shabbily towards the cabin staff on the plane. That was when I realised the truth contained in the phrase 'never meet your heroes'.
(Career) politicians were probably always just a bad idea!
You are absolutely right that it is not possible for anyone with intellectual honesty today to deny overshoot. Yet somehow I don't think I have seen that thought expressed so clearly in writing or speech. Maybe we should be saying it more!
Absolutely we should be talking about it more. Steven's piece is an excellent start:
https://theuaob.substack.com/p/systemic-stupidity-why-the-political
Language is not keeping up with the times either. New terms to describe the morphing of politics.
This is corporate fascism. As the move is not politically motivated as much as it is the puppets of the Oil handbook.
When you are 45% of the worlds GDP for 7 decades, you do not vote for governments. In the capital system, you control them.
They, having co-opted the small tech bro community by sharing the political handbook, establish new centres of energy use. Deserts of data sucking water and energy - but lacking imagination and intellect. These data centres create the new demNd for fossil fuels where solar is imagined to take over housing and automobiles.
Data centres are just large libraries of stored Information, to run through quick compilation software,that lack imagination and intelligence. Miles of sand without water.
Been thinking the same thing
I wish there was a button to allow for “10 likes” to be posted. Very articulate article. Well written!
Thank you for this important essay, beginning by trashing the granfallon McKibben, whose only credential is having written a book(s).
It is exactly correct that we need forms of degrowth to find a simpler life. But the political leaders keep attempting to build their way out of this overly-complex society which involves exponential increases in energy and resources consumption (throughput).
The Peak Oil Wars are here and are never, ever going away, unlike the protagonists who inflict them on the ecosystem.
https://kevinhester.live/2025/08/26/war-in-the-east-war-in-the-west-war-up-north-war-down-south-every-where-theres-war-environmental-carnage/