The Dao and the Singularity: When Ancient Wisdom Meets the Physics of Collapse
Why a 2,500-Year-Old Text Explains Our Modern Economic Crisis
I recently watched a brilliant, sobering video from Guy McPherson’s Nature Bats Last linking the ancient wisdom of the Tao Te Ching (Dao De Jing) to the collapse of civilisations. It struck me with the force of a fundamental law, especially when juxtaposed with my recently proposed Socio-Economic Thermodynamic Entropy (SETE) Model.
The Tao Te Ching, written by Lao Tzu 2,575 years ago, warned: “When man interferes with the Dao... the equilibrium crumbles.” This isn’t just philosophy; it’s a perfect, poetic description of the Second Law of Thermodynamics applied to political economy.
Our modern crisis, it turns out, is a failure of physics, not just policy.
The Strong Enlightenment’s Fatal Flaw: The Myth of Separability
The core problem, articulated by both the video and the SETE model, is the ideological foundation of our current economic orthodoxy—what I call the “Strong Enlightenment Tradition.” This tradition is built on a tripartite delusion: that growth can continue forever (Perpetual Progress), that innovation will always solve biophysical limits (Technological Omnipotence), and most dangerously, that the economy operates independently of Earth’s physical laws (Separability).
As the video explains, this leads to us viewing finite planetary systems as mere “resources” to be exploited for “comfort, efficiency, and familiarity.” In the language of SETE, this is the very definition of Entropy Blindness. We are politically and ideologically blind to the thermodynamic costs of our actions, treating the biosphere as an infinite pantry and an infinite sewer.
The Planetary Orbit: Inertial Mass and Entropic Drag
The SETE model reframes the political economy not as a self-regulating machine, but as an Inertial Mass (M) orbiting a Resource Entropy Singularity (S_crit)—the point of inevitable physical collapse.
This Inertial Mass is not abstract; it is the accumulated weight of everything that resists change. It is the Material Mass (M_M) of our fixed capital, infrastructure, and physical assets, combined with the Institutional Mass (M_I) of our axiomatic beliefs, sovereign debt, and the ideology of technological solutionism.
The Tao warned that interference makes the “equilibrium crumble.” SETE explains the mechanics of this crumbling: a growing Inertial Mass creates Entropic Drag (F_drag). This drag diverts more and more useful energy (Exergy) into Maintenance Power (P_maint)—the non-negotiable biophysical and institutional cost of just holding the system together. This is the biophysical inflationary pressure we are starting to feel acutely, a cost that steals the capacity for change. The more we have, the harder it is to move, and the more energy we must spend just to keep the old systems from falling apart.
The Real Limit: The Entropic Event Horizon (H)
While the Singularity (S_crit) is the final physical end, the immediate threat is the Entropic Event Horizon (H).
H is the political-economic point of no return. It’s the state where the velocity of structural change required (v_required) to avoid the Singularity is greater than the politically feasible velocity of change (v_political-feasible).
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The factor that dictates political feasibility is the Institutional Mass (M_I). The current power structure is distributed based on the ownership of high-M assets. A high M_I ensures that any biophysical warning signal—like a climate disaster or resource scarcity—is mediated by the belief in technological solutionism (I_tech). The system simply frames the warning as a technical problem awaiting an innovation, thus suppressing political conflict and holding the velocity of change near zero.
We cross the Event Horizon not when the physics fail, but when the politics fail.
Escaping the Gravitational Pull
The SETE model confirms the dire warning found in the IPCC SSP scenarios: the “Middle of the Road” and “Fossil-Fueled Dev.” paths are non-starters. They guarantee terminal orbital decay because they fail to reduce the Inertial Mass (M).
The only viable path—a kind of modern return to the “Tao”—is a Decisive Orbital Manoeuvre grounded in structural reduction. We must shed accumulated debt and material stock, encoding systemic inertia, and shift fundamentally from maximising exchange-value (growth) to maximising use-value (durability, repairability, and function).
This must be distinguished from mainstream “dematerialisation” narratives. Dematerialisation focuses on flows (using fewer resources per unit of value), but it doesn’t challenge the massive stock of Inertial Mass. We need to reduce the stock, not just slightly tweak the flow.
Both the ancient Dao and the cutting-edge SETE model arrive at the same conclusion: The challenge is not one of negotiation but of physics. We are living within hard, non-negotiable boundaries. The political task is to achieve a radical, metabolic restructuring before our own ideological inertia locks us onto the collapse trajectory.
The equilibrium is crumbling. The time to stop interfering with the Dao, and start aligning our economy with thermodynamics, is now.
Yes, it is almost too late to begin aligning our economy with thermodynamics, and the critical mass holding back change is 8+ billion people in almost 200 nations all on their own their separate paths to oblivion. They can all ignore the failure of life systems for how long?